See election results, maps, county-by-county vote counts and more for Ohio’s races on Nov. 3, 2020. Anti-Semitism row: Corbyn allies urge members to stay in the party. November 3, 2020 Election Night 2020. Regulatory reviews are another, and Pfizer filed its Emergency Use Authorization application with the US Food & Drug Administration last week, moving that vaccine closer to actual distribution. Selected questions are reported back to clients each week, with periodic updates provided on previous forecast questions. With the most extensive, independently verified track record of early foresight ever compiled, Good Judgment and its global network of certified Superforecasters are uniquely equipped to help you think more clearly about an uncertain future. A team of "superforecasters" -- analysts with particularly good track records -- for the firm Good Judgment think there's only a 16% probability President … Convert strategic uncertainty into manageable risk to avoid costly mistakes. Note: “Share of expected votes counted” reflects recorded votes and the best estimate of the total number of votes cast according to Edison Research.Methodology ©2020 Good Judgment Inc. Good Judgment,® Superforecaster,® Superforecasting,® and Staffcasting™ are trademarks of Good Judgment Inc. | Privacy. Read headlines covering the presidential debates, results, and more. Recounts in Wisconsin confirm Biden win . 30 Under 30 2020. President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign had requested recounts in the state’s most populous counties earlier this month. Actionable, early insight and better decisions start with the science of Superforecasting. VICTORY FOR BIDEN. Sandra came into prominence after her husband posted some of her … Identify expected outcomes before others recognize them so that you can capitalize on opportunities quickly and with confidence. But some elections are more equal than others. LIVE: Follow the Fox News Live Updates blog throughout the 2020 Elections for real-time updates. In the latest episode of Ruffer Radio, Dr Tim Smith and Alexander Chartres discuss the 2020 race to the White House and explore why this election, in the context of a broader shift in world order, may well be the most important for a generation. US Election 2020 Trump accepts transition to Biden must begin The president says a key federal agency should "do what needs to be done", but he vows to fight on. Elections in India in 2020 will include by-elections to the Lok Sabha, elections to the Rajya Sabha for 73 Seats, elections to state legislative assemblies of 3 states and numerous other by-elections to state legislative assemblies, councils and local bodies. “Superforecasters” Now See 90% Odds 200 Million Americans Will Be Vaccinated By October. Email. Good Judgment’s co-founder, Philip Tetlock, literally wrote the book on state-of-the-art crowd-sourced forecasting. Find the latest news, photos and videos from the 2020 United States presidential election. 306. October 30, 2020. 16s. 232. Updated November 11, 2020. Visual Web Stories. acquitted by the Senate in the impeachment trial, Biden may win election, but institutions will continue to erode: Eurasia Group's Bremmer, The countries with the most to gain—and lose—under a Biden administration, Reviving the Iran nuclear deal will be harder than it looks, The odds of a Republican winning in 2020 went up as incumbent President Donald Trump had arguably the best period of his presidency. Then, we asked them to “explain” why the outcomes differed from the most likely outcomes in their pre-election probabilistic forecasts. LATEST NEWS. a special forecast that Good Judgment made for The Economist’s World in 2021 edition, Training workshop (virtual) – open to public. POLITICO's coverage of 2020 races for President, Senate, House, Governors and Key Ballot Measures. Good Judgment helps energy providers quantify geopolitical and regulatory risks so that the firms can build decision models that take account of more than just engineering and economic data. Participants should plan to attend both sessions. © Eurasia Group 2020. Following the news, 70 percent of Republicans now say they don’t believe the 2020 election was free and fair, a stark rise from the 35 percent of GOP voters who held similar beliefs before the election. Donald J. Trump 2020. Eighty-six of those chambers held legislative elections in 2020. Meanwhile, trust in the election system grew for Democrats, many who took to the streets to celebrate Biden’s victory on Saturday. US Election 2020. Ir0nbelly $0.01 earned. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence (if different), and our use of cookies as described in our Cookie Policy. Though votes continue to trickle in as ballots are tallied, here's a look at how America voted in the 2020 presidential election. Last week he was. The biennial election for representatives from all 435 Congressional Districts will take place on November 3, 2020. Donald Trump 2020 - … Learn more ». Top Stories. Published Tue, Nov 10 2020 3:11 PM EST Updated Wed, Nov 11 2020 8:56 AM EST. See our Case Studies for specific examples of organizations using Superforecasting to solve their toughest forecasting problems and make better decisions. With Moderna officially filing for expedited approval from the FDA yesterday, and Pfizer following up by announcing early Tuesday in the New York morning, With vaccine newsflow driving trading activity for yet another week, the team of analysts at Goldman … About Us Good Judgment Open is owned and operated by Good Judgment, a forecasting services firm that equips corporate and government decision makers with the benefit of foresight. Another aggregating factor contributing to increased Republican odds is the improved polling numbers and electoral support for Senator Bernie Sanders, who is now considered by betting markets to be the candidate most likely to secure the Democratic nomination. Actresses Xtra. ‘Superforecasters’ Say a Covid-19 Vaccine Is Still a Ways Off The cautious group sees only a 63% chance of a widely available inoculation before April 2022. We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. Presidential Race See detailed results Races We’re Watching. Fauci warns of post-Thanksgiving US Covid surge. Featured. Biden, Democrat, 306; Trump, Republican, 232; 270 to win. Learn more about this forecast and Superforecasting™ techniques here. We use two metrics to measure states’ importance. 'Superforecasters,' ordinary people paid for their accurate predictions, are being called upon to forecast the future of the pandemic. Gain a competitive edge with Superforecasts on the trends that are shaping the future. Live 2020 election results. Good Judgment’s global network of Superforecasters has its roots in research funded by the US intelligence community. Each session will run for a maximum of 2½ hours. Results map. Read headlines covering the presidential debates, results, and more. Tweet. Daveswildcamping. The general election for state legislative races took place on November 3, 2020.. Republicans won new majorities in at least two chambers: the New Hampshire State Senate and New Hampshire House of Representatives. Here's when the results of the 2020 election will be finalized. 2m13s. Donald Trump. October 30: Four changes. Here’s how the BBC’s election programme covered it. How Donald Trump Can Win The Election . Find the latest news, photos and videos from the 2020 United States presidential election. Everything pointed towards a Bernie Sanders win. Latest news, analysis, polls, election results, campaign issues, candidate bios, state-by-state election coverage and more. Note that NPR is using the 'Likely' terminology to cover what others call both 'Likely' and 'Safe'. Good Judgment® helps clients quantify subjective risks for better decisions. NPR 2020 Election Map Ratings. Any copying or distribution of Eurasia Group materials is prohibited. Post to Facebook; Tweet; Send by email; Post to Reddit; Share on LinkedIn; Whatsapp; Pin to Pinterest; Copy link to this page Link copied! Full coverage of the 2020 Presidential Election and U.S. House and Senate races from USA TODAY, including the latest news, coverage, analysis and results. 3 January 2020 The Superforecasters currently predict Joe Biden will be the nominee. This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged. C-SPAN covered the results of the presidential, U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and gubernatorial elections. Early, actionable forecasts allow strategists to “get it righter, faster.” Learn more », NGOs and nonprofits seeking to make the most of limited resources must forecast where the need will be greatest. LOUD WORLD. Learn more », Policymakers and military leaders leverage Superforecasting to anticipate events of global consequence more rapidly and precisely. Finally, a team of superforecasters consulted by Goldman see a 71% chance that 25 million Americans - presumably mostly health-care workers, cops and other stuff - will be vaccinated by Jan. 21. A more recent example of when the Forecasters can be wrong is the Democrat Leadership Election. Stay informed with fast facts, candidate updates, and key takeaways on the issues, all in one place. The FT 2020 results page displays US presidential, Senate and House races as called by the Associated Press.We categorise states into “expected” categories based on pre-election polls.States where the difference in poll numbers between Biden and Trump is more than 10 percentage points are classified as states we expect to be solidly in favour of one candidate. 2020 Election Was Most Secure in U.S. History, Cybersecurity Officials Say. The growing worries about a lack of election outcome clarity for some time could lead to further volatility on Wall Street and make the disputed 2000 presidential race look like child’s play. Featured. Tags. Joseph R. Biden Jr. was elected the 46th president of the United States on Nov. 7. We asked the Superforecasters to imagine that they could time-travel to a future in which the 2020 election results are final, with the Republicans retaining both the White House and control of the Senate. CLEAR SIGNAL. When you make decisions based on precise probability forecasts, rather than hunches, the benefits are game-changing. Superforecasters did not accurately predict Brexit, putting the chances of a Leave vote at 23% in June 2016 - the month of the referendum - according to Bloomberg. Live Live Updates. ... Election 2020. Vijay Vaitheeswaran, The Economist, 16 November 2020. We have split the workshop into two days – December 9th and 10th. 53s. TimeIsNow $6.69 earned. 2020 elections. October 2020: All elections are equal. See more ideas about this or that questions, background information, us election. 270 to win. The final 2020 electoral college projection from NPR. Source: Decision Desk HQ. Live 2020 election results and maps by state. Victory and… After 50 of 50 states . Now Comes the Reckoning. Interested in learning more about Eurasia Group and Good Judgment's joint executive education trainings and custom research? More election coverage . Good Judgement Project ‘Superforecasters’ currently state there is roughly a 70% probability that the losing party won’t concede by the end of election week (Sunday, November 8th), and a … State Race Calls. Each Friday, Eurasia Group clients have the opportunity to submit potential forecast questions to the Superforecaster network. Signal is a newsletter on international affairs published four times a week by GZERO Media, a Eurasia Group company. 2020 Election Sting Operation Donald Trump BlockChain Security Steve Pieczenik Interview. Paul R. La Monica, CNN Business, 21 September 2020 By Tyler Durden. Get the latest updates on the 2020 Elections. 2m15s. … Close. One is the “tipping-point probability”: the chance that a state will cast the decisive 270 th electoral vote for the victor. But there’s hope coming from superforecasters. Eurasia Group currently assesses the probability of Trump winning reelection at 60% and should Sanders win the nomination, the president's odds would increase only marginally. The super-forecasters, who are anonymous, give a four per cent chance that with no confirmed election winner by the inauguration, House Speaker … The “Oxford vaccine” is also reportedly less expensive and easier to transport than the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. Reports that Superforecasters were 30% more accurate than intelligence analysts with access to classified information rocked the conventional wisdom. Schedule a consultation to learn how our Superforecaster Analytics, Workshops, or Staffcasting services can help your organization make better decisions. View 2020 primary election results, interactive maps, poll information and candidate fundraising totals in each state and US territory. 2020 elections. Explore. Financial services firms succeed when they foresee risks and opportunities before they are priced into the market. Wochit News $0.32 earned. Previously: How early voting shaped 2020 turnout. Kamala Harris will serve as America’s first woman vice president, breaking yet another barrier for women in government. Election 2020. Voters will select presidential electors who in turn will vote on December 14, 2020, to either elect a new president and vice president or reelect the incumbents Donald Trump and Mike Pence respectively. Open Judgment’s superforecaster team has a track record of success, having made accurate predictions about world events like the approval of the United Kingdom’s Brexit vote in 2020, Saudi Arabia’s decision to partially take its national gas company public in 2019, and the status of Russia’s food embargo against some European countries also in 2019. Superforecasting helps these firms make smart bets on consumer trends, regulatory developments, and geopolitical shifts that the less-informed crowd has yet to recognize. Get the latest news coverage, live stream video, and photos on the 2020 Presidential Election. Live democratic and republican delegate counts, caucuses and primary results by state. It will be the 59th quadrennial presidential election. US election 2020: Has Trump delivered on his promises? What "superforecasters" predict for the COVID-19 pandemic The "superforecasting" firm Good Judgment uses probability estimates to make predictions about what to expect from the coronavirus pandemic. Sandra Otterson, popular with the name ‘Wifey‘ on the internet married her high school mate Kevin Otterson in the mid-1980s. What "superforecasters" predict for the COVID-19 pandemic The "superforecasting" firm Good Judgment uses probability estimates to make predictions about what to expect from the coronavirus pandemic. Latest Election 2020 Results • U.S. House • United States • Tuesday November 3rd • Presidential Election Details Read more >>. American adult star, Sandra Otterson, currently based in Arizona, USA has is worth about $5 million. This website uses cookies. The world’s most innovative organizations turn to Good Judgment to get early insight on pivotal questions about the future. Superforecasters, a new type of expert network, is radically improving executive judgment. Post. Train your internal strategists and analysts to think like Superforecasters. Results Overview. “Superforecasters” Now See 90% Odds 200 Million Americans Will Be Vaccinated By October. COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) — Ohio’s elections chief certified results on Friday of a 2020 election that he said was almost flawlessly executed despite the pandemic, raising concern that President Donald Trump’s allegations of widespread fraud could be undercutting voter confidence in the process. Judge Blocks, Then Unblocks Georgia From Wiping or Resetting Election Machines. 2020 Election Coverage Joe Biden has won a tight election and will be the next US president. Key states. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 electoral map forecast. Get live results from the presidential, House and Senate races along with the latest news on election night. J. Peter Scoblic & Philip E. Tetlock, Foreign Affairs, November/December 2020, Vijay Vaitheeswaran, The Economist, 16 November 2020, Paul R. La Monica, CNN Business, 21 September 2020. Investors Fear US Election Won’t Be Decided for Weeks − or Even Months. Live U.S. election results November 3, 2020. e The 2020 United States presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2020. 2hr. huntermason4 $8.92 earned. Background and Career . Good Judgment is pleased to announce that our popular public workshops will be returning in December 2020 in an all-virtual format. 2hr. Last Updated: July 28, 2020 . The other is the chance that any single voter in a state will cast the decisive ballot that … Winners will be sworn in to serve in the 117th Congress in early January, 2021. 2020 Presidential Election Results. Published 15 October. Site by Odgis+Co and ICVM Group. Share this article. Tue, 12/01/2020 – 20:05. Biden Projected to be President-Elect. Promising clinical trial results are a key milestone on the path to widespread distribution of a vaccine. As House Democrats prepare to reelect their entire leadership team this week, one thing has come into clear focus 14 days removed from the 2020 election: They got beat -- badly. J. Peter Scoblic & Philip E. Tetlock, Foreign Affairs, November/December 2020. Share. Making decisions without precise probability forecasts is like playing poker without counting cards. Results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election, including electoral votes between Trump and Biden in each state, and who is winning the popular vote. We update our probability forecasts at 7am EST daily, refresh commentary weekly, and launch new questions often. Jun 12, 2020 - Explore Michelle's board "‘Superforecasters’" on Pinterest. Why are Superforecasters so accurate? This week, we update our deep dive into the Superforecasters’ latest views on the timing of widespread vaccine availability with an update on a special forecast that Good Judgment made for The Economist’s World in 2021 edition. Follow the latest race results, candidates, and events leading up to the 2020 Presidential Election. He received a historic number of votes to unseat Trump. Their cutting-edge methods and network of professional Superforecasters deliver accurate and early foresight. 1m21s. 99% of Expected Vote Reporting Exit Polls » Joe Biden. See full results and maps from the 2020 presidential election. In the 50 states, there are 99 state legislative chambers altogether. The 2020 election is set to finish with $14 billion in spending, smashing records as Trump and Biden battle for the White House. 2020 House Results. The general opinion on Wall Street is that Bernie Sanders would have significant negative effects on the US financial market, however based on the new records set by the S&P 500 nearly every day over the last two weeks, it seems his theoretical chances against Trump, who is perceived to be more market friendly, are not being taken very seriously. Covid-19 Forced Businesses to Experiment. Election 2020, TRUMP. Eurasia Group believes the conventional wisdom that the incumbent would easily win reelection if Sanders were the Democratic nominee is misplaced; not only would any Democratic candidate be competitive in such a polarized environment, but Sanders's anti-system credibility would be a significant asset in the general election. Share: U.S. election results 2020. Superforecasting accelerates insights on public health and humanitarian crises, so that our clients can deliver timely aid where it’s most needed. That question made Superforecasting required reading from Wall Street to 10 Downing Street. Individuals interested in Superforecasting training are also invited to consider our online training course, Superforecasting Fundamentals, and are welcome to practice their forecasting skills on our public forecasting site, Good Judgment Open. October 13, 2020. See maps and real-time presidential election results for the 2020 US election. This figure is up from its 48% mark of 24 January and has steadily increased over the last few weeks. Good Judgement Project 'Superforecasters' currently state there is roughly a 70% probability that the losing party won’t concede by the end of election week (Sunday, November 8th), and a 25% probability we still won’t know the victory by Thanksgiving. Contact us at. President Donald Trump’s reelection campaign had requested recounts in the state’s most populous counties earlier this month. Election 2020 Results and Live Updates. Visual Web Stories . Get early insight into your mission-critical questions from our elite Superforecasters. But we’re not out of the woods yet. 14 February 2020 The Superforecasters currently predict that there is a 61% chance that the Republican nominee will win the United States' presidential election come November. You may share a link to this page on any of the sites listed below. 2020 Senate Results. Good news on the vaccine front continues, with the AstraZeneca vaccine also reporting positive results regarding its clinical trials. Recounts in Wisconsin confirm Biden win . Trump Landslide Election 2020. Election extraordinary ... George Floyd’s killing was “very personal for my family,” Barrett says. Outsmart your competition with well-calibrated forecasts. The odds that these vaccination milestones will be delayed until Q2 2021 are seen as pretty small, in the low-single-digits, percentage-wise. By Timothy Walbe. Learn more », Energy companies rely on forecasts to decide which resources to develop, which markets to serve, and what prices to charge. The consensus on the Good Judgement Project, the home of the SuperForecasters, prior to Super Tuesday was: Bernie Sanders – 95%; Joe Biden 1%, (a few other candidates with 1%). The ABC News 2020 Electoral Map shows state-by-state votes on the path to win the 2020 Presidential Election.